IF YOU GO GROCERY SHOPPING, YOU DON'T NEED US TO TELL YOU THAT EGGS ARE EXPENSIVE AND, IN SOME PLACES, IN LIMITED SUPPLY.

IN 2024, THE AVERAGE PRICE OF A DOZEN LARGE, GRADE A EGGS JUMPED 65% WHILE OVERALL FOOD PRICES ROSE JUST 2.5%.

AND THE AGRICULTURE DEPARTMENT PREDICTS PRICES WILL GO UP ANOTHER 20% THIS YEAR.

A BIG REASON FOR THESE SKY-HIGH EGG PRICES: THE BIRD FLU OUTBREAK THAT STARTED IN 2022.

SINCE THEN, EFFORTS TO LIMIT THE SPREAD OF THE VIRUS HAVE LED TO THE SLAUGHTER OF MORE THAN 145 MILLION CHICKENS, TURKEYS AND OTHER BIRDS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THEM EGG-LAYING CHICKENS.

TWO PERSPECTIVES ON THIS: DAVID ANDERSON IS A PROFESSOR AND LIVESTOCK ECONOMIST AT TEXAS A&M UNIVERSITY.

AND ANGELA RASMUSSEN IS A VIROLOGIST AT THE UNIVERSITY OF SASKATCHEWAN.

DAVID, HELP US BY PUTTING THESE HIGH PRICES INTO PERSPECTIVE.

IN HISTORICAL CONTEXT WHERE THEY STAND?

DAVID: THESE ARE ALL-TIME RECORD HIGH PRICES.

IN A HISTORICAL CONTEXT WE ARE AT THE PEAK, THE HIGHEST THEY HAVE EVER BEEN.

JOHN: ARE SOME REGIONS OF THE COUNTRY HARDER HIT COMPARED TO OTHERS?

DAVID: YEAH, PARTICULARLY THE COAST, NEW YORK AND CALIFORNIA WE SEE HIGHER PRICES.

FOR THE SAME REASONS THEY ARE ALWAYS HIGHER IN THOSE LOCATIONS.

ONE IS, IT IS A LONG WAY FROM WHERE WE PRODUCE THE MAJORITY OF THE EGGS IN THE U.S. TO THOSE MARKETS.

IF YOU ARE GOING TO DELIVER TO A STORE IN NEW YORK CITY IT IS PROBABLY MORE COSTLY TO GET TO THOSE MARKETS.

JOHN: HOW BIG A FACTOR IS BIRD FLU IN THIS?

ARE THERE OTHER FACTORS AS WELL?

DAVID: THAT REALLY IS THE FACTOR IN THESE PRICES.

LONG-TERM INCREASE IN DEMAND FOR EGGS AS WE HAVE INCREASED PROTEIN IN OUR DIETS.

EGGS COMPETE AS A PROTEIN SOURCE WITH MEAT AND OTHER VEGETABLE PROTEIN SOURCES.

BUT THOSE LONG-TERM TRENDS IN INCREASING DEMAND ARE WARPED BY THIS SUDDEN SHOCK TO THE SYSTEM OF A DISEASE OUTBREAK THAT WIPES OUT A PORTION OF OUR SUPPLIES.

JOHN: ANGELA, LET ME ASK YOU ABOUT THIS DISEASE OUTBREAK.

TELL ME ABOUT THE LATEST STRAIN OF THE BIRD FLU AND WHY IT IS SO PERSISTENT.

ANGELA: THERE ARE MULTIPLE STRAINS OF THE BIRD FLU CURRENTLY CIRCULATING IN WILD BIRDS AS WELL AS IN THE NATION'S DAIRY CATTLE.

WE HAVE MULTIPLE SPILLOVERS OCCURRING TO DIFFERENT POULTRY FARMS.

SOME OF THESE VIRUSES ARE COMING FROM WILD BIRDS, SOME FROM WILD BIRDS THAT HAVE CONTRACTED THE VIRUS FROM THE DAIRY COWS.

THERE ARE OTHER SPECIES LIKE CATS ALSO GETTING INFECTED.

THERE IS QUITE A LOT OF H5N1 INFLUENZA VIRUSES CIRCULATING AROUND IN THE ENVIRONMENT, IN OTHER SPECIES OF ANIMALS, AND THAT IS PARTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE INCREASED NUMBER OF FLOC OUTBREAKS AS WELL AS HUMAN CASES.

JOHN: TALK ABOUT THE HUMAN CASES.

THE CDC SAYS IN THE U.S.

THERE ARE 66 HUMAN CASES AND RECENTLY WE HAD THE FIRST DEATH IN THE U.S. WHAT IS THE RISK TO HUMANS AND HOW WORRIED PEOPLE BE ABOUT IT?

ANGELA: THIS IS A COMPLICATED QUESTION BECAUSE PEOPLE SHOULD DEFINITELY BE CONCERNED ABOUT IT.

BUT AT THIS TIME, THE RISK TO THE GENERAL POPULATION IS QUITE LOW.

PART OF THE REASON IS, WE SEE NO EVIDENCE OF SUSTAINED HUMAN TO HUMAN TRANSMISSION WITH THESE VIRUSES.

EVERY OF THESE HUMAN CASES IS GETTING THE VIRUS FROM AN ANIMAL, EITHER FROM A BIRD, THE CASE YOU MENTIONED THAT WAS SEVERE AND DIED, WAS CONTRACTING THE VIRUS FROM A BACKYARD FLOCK OF POULTRY OR THEY ARE GETTING IT FROM DAIRY CATTLE.

THESE ARE OCCUPATIONAL EXPOSURES WE ARE SEEING.

WE ARE NOT SEEING IT SPREAD FROM HUMAN TO HUMAN.

THAT IS GOOD NEWS, BUT STILL CONCERNING BECAUSE THE MORE HUMAN CASES THERE ARE THE GREATER THE LIKELIHOOD THIS VIRUS COULD MUTATE TO BE ABLE TO TRANSMIT EFFICIENTLY FROM HUMAN TO HUMAN.

WHILE THE GENERAL RISK TO THE POPULATION IS LOW, AND HANDLING OR IN CLOSE PROXIMITY WITH ONE OF THESE SPECIES, WE NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS TO MAKE SURE HUMAN TO HUMAN TRANSMISSION IS DETECTED BEFORE IT HAS AN OPPORTUNITY TO SPREAD OUTWARD INTO THE HUMAN POPULATION.

JOHN: SHOULD PEOPLE BE CONCERNED OR WORRIED ABOUT EATING EGGS?

ANGELA: EGGS ARE QUITE SAFE TO EAT AS WELL AS MILK AS LONG AS IT IS COOKED OR PASTEURIZED.

I WOULD NOT RECOMMEND EATING RAW EGGS RIGHT NOW BECAUSE THEY CAN SUPPORT THE GROWTH OF INFLUENZA VIRUSES.

THAT IS HOW WE OFTEN GROW VACCINES FOR FLU.

THEY REALLY THROW UP A LOT OF VIRUS.

MAKE SURE YOU COOK THE EGGS AND ARE DRINKING PASTEURIZED MILK.

OTHERWISE IT IS SAFE.

JOHN: WHAT WILL IT TAKE TO BRING THESE PRICES DOWN TO EARTH?

DAVID: THE FIRST THING WE NEED IS FOR THE DISEASE TO QUIT OCCURRING AND WIPING OUT CHICKEN FARMS.

THE SECOND THING IS TIME TO REBUILD FLOCKS, REPLACE THE LOST BIRDS.

THAT TAKES A LITTLE TIME.

JOHN: WE'RE TALKING ABOUT THE FLOCKS DESTROYED.

AS SOON AS IT SHOWS UP, TO KEEP IT FROM SPREADING, THEY DESTROY THE FLOCK.

HOW LONG DOES IT TAKE TO REBUILD THAT FLOCK?

DAVID: ABOUT 26 WEEKS TO GROW A HEN, A PULLETT, TO GET THEM TO WHERE THEY START LAYING EGGS.

IT TAKES A WHILE LONGER TO GET EGGS FULLY SIZED.

THE FIRST ONES ARE SMALL.

TO GET THE LARGE ONES WE SEE AT THE STORE OR EXTRA-LARGE TAKES LONGER.

HERE WE ARE WITH BIOLOGY, THAT IS OUR TIME CONSTRAINT.

IT TAKES TIME TO DO THAT.

WE CAN LOOK AT EGG PRICES AND THEY ARE VOLATILE.

2022, 2023, WE WENT FROM OVER $5 A DOZEN TO 84 CENTS A DOZEN BY MAY 2023.

THE POTENTIAL IS THERE GIVEN A LITTLE TIME.

THANK YOU VERY MUCH.

ANGELA: THANKS FOR HAVING ME.