Welcome to the table for the Friday, July 3rd, 2026 installment of Market Plus.

Back with us.

Ernie Goss Chris Robinson.

Gentlemen, good to have you here.

>> Good to be.

>> All right, I'm gonna I'm done working.

It's the holiday weekend.

So, Ernie, you want to ask any questions to Chris?

>> I do, I mean, we understand that that the market for the market for us that Brazil took part of the market for for to China that market is it gone forever or is it easy to get it back in terms of soybean, for example, is that market gone?

>> No.

>> I think it's just part of a bigger market.

Here's the deal.

>> You can recap.

You can recapture that quickly.

>> Yeah, absolutely.

It all comes down to price generally.

But what was interesting this year is earlier in the year when we were negotiating with China, China actually bought our beans, our spot beans.

They were a dollar more expensive than South American beans.

China actually put a moratorium on South American beans for a while.

They were buying ours.

They were paying more for beans.

And a lot of people are like, why are they doing that?

I certainly couldn't figure out why they're doing it.

And because I think they're trying to somehow curry favor for the the next negotiations coming down there.

So big picture, Ernie, the Chinese have spent billions of dollars helping build infrastructure in Brazil.

And every year, Brazil, they have this huge harvest and they have the trucks lined up.

Chinese have, you know, built roads, and they're trying to build infrastructure.

So they've been playing the long game.

South America.

They actually produce more soybeans than we do now.

I mean, when you do the math, the size of the crop.

So that's not going to go away anytime soon.

But what's interesting is if they do come back like they have for years and years, we have a billion bushels, they'll come get it.

And if the price is right, they'll come get it.

Because you have to remember they've got a billion people.

They have 300 million hogs that they have to feed, and they feed the hogs soybean meal.

>> Even though this week, though, they said they were going to start cutting back some of their hog production.

>> Oh., >> yeah.

>> China.

>> Which is not something.

>> That's a positioning thing to that they do.

>> China's economy has been slowing down.

I mean.

>> That's that's.

>> One reason crude oil while there's a whole 'nother thing.

But that's crude oil didn't spike.

>> Yeah, yeah.

>> More on that.

Sorry I interrupted.

>> No, it's we do a separate survey of supply managers and we're always looking at the supply chain and how easy it is to move, or how difficult it is to move from one supply chain to another supply chain.

The the disruptions to the supply chain.

And what that does typically is pushing up, pushing up prices because of the disruptions.

>> Yeah.

>> All right.

Speaking of disruptions, Chris has a question for you now.

>> All right.

I need to know this.

>> It's very, very important.

>> Okay.

>> Will the new fed chair will he raise rates.

Is he going to be Paul Volcker.

Is he going to raise rates to get rid of inflation.

Or is he going to sit tight.

>> Well he's going to sit tight right now.

That's that's what we're talking about.

And there's several reasons for that.

And people say, well, President Trump, no, Warsh is not going to I don't care if President Trump did appoint him.

When you're an economist, I don't care.

You're sitting there.

You don't want to be somebody's lapdog.

So he's not it will not.

He will not reduce rates because of President Trump.

But he will increase rates potentially not this month.

They meet again on the 28th and 29th of July.

And there will not be no rate change at that meeting.

The movement is upward right now in terms of rates.

But in the fourth quarter, I expect a cut not because of President Trump, because the economy is slowing down and inflation is coming down.

Look at what's going on with rents.

Look at what's going to go on with housing prices.

Those are coming down.

Fuel prices are going to come down, but not probably till the fourth quarter.

>> Yeah.

Because last week I think or maybe it was two weeks ago, new home sales off, which had been something that had been stable.

The supply of existing homes continues to be low.

But what's out there is super high.

You're saying some of the air is coming out of that?

>> Yes, absolutely.

And I it was amazing.

I heard Warsh say, well, and this is how I interpret it.

He says, well, if we can't meet the 2% goal, that's their goal.

Inflation at CPI or PCE at 2%, let's just change the measure.

I'm like, come on, the consumer, the consumer is what's pushing this.

I mean, when you go to the store, I don't care what the fed says.

If you feel it, you feel it and you do feel it.

>> Okay.

>> So consumer was supposed to be one of the people that benefited with USMCA, the renegotiated pact was to improve trade amongst these three countries.

The US and Mexico have had conversations.

July 1st was supposed to be the launch of the examination.

The president has said he doesn't know if we should go back into it, even though it was him that was at the head when it was redone.

What's the likelihood that Usmca will not be renewed?

And if it is going to be, what's the president wanting in concessions?

>> Well, he needs to move on it and move positively.

We benefit from that.

A disruptions.

Again, back to my earlier statement about volatility.

This creates so much volatility about buying whether you're buying or selling in Canada there in Carney, the Canadian individuals, the citizens are getting quite tired of of Americans.

And we're like, he's not speaking for me.

I want I love Canadians or whatever, and we've seen it.

We.

And again, I'm not putting President Trump down.

I he's a great.

In many ways, he's a great president, done some great things, but he's also done some things that weren't so good.

And that's in the area of trade.

If we need.

And the problem is he's I think gambling a little bit, thinking he can negotiate harder.

I don't think that's necessary.

Let's cut a deal.

Let's get it done.

Let's cut out that in the uncertainty.

>> Do you find that answer to be in line with anything you've been looking.

>> At every every week?

>> You know who the best buyer of our corn is week after week after week after week after week.

Yeah.

Mexico.

You know who else takes a ton of our lean hogs?

Mexico.

>> Yeah, right.

>> And also Canada.

I mean, so I mean, that is one thing that we've had tremendous, tremendous demand for old crop corn.

I mean, I can't imagine what the price of corn would be if every week it's been on fire for our corn and Mexico is there.

And I'm like, I when I hear about he's going to go get tough with him, I'm like, geez, don't get too tough.

Because yes, we don't want to lose that.

Well.

>> Last week on the program, we discussed Mexico has changed some of their livestock setup.

They are starting to do expansion of facilities.

The Screwworm has kept that border closed.

What happens?

To talk about market destruction?

What happens if Mexico just starts doing a whole lot more of the cattle industry on their side of the border?

>> Well, if the border opens up and we get more beef coming into the U.S., of course, that would push ten to push prices down.

But there is some demand here for the cattle in in the feedlots here.

So it would be a positive thing.

In other words, again, we we as Americans can't be afraid of competition.

We are the most productive.

Our economy.

We're tops.

We're tops in agriculture and manufacturing in two areas.

We serve at Creighton University.

>> Okay, I'd love to keep doing this.

I have a list of things I need to get to, and it ties right into this one for you.

Chris Scott in Wisconsin wants to know corn looks pretty cheap.

AM I buying it now as a cattle feeder for my yearly needs?

>> Absolutely.

I mean, it's like everything else, if you know you're going to need it.

And we just dropped $0.80.

Yeah.

And the way you do that is you can still buy it.

Yeah.

We've had a bounce since the this USDA report, but we just got absolutely hammered heading into this USDA, USDA report.

The contract lows.

Right.

And so yeah, market's very, very oversold.

And the way you play that you can't promise someone, oh, you buy calls here three months from now, you'll you'll make money.

>> But I'll tell you the number one signal though is I just bought corn through the Chicago Board of Exchange.

I bought it about three weeks ago.

That's probably it's probably going to head downward before it heads upward.

>> You know, when you get.

>> Out the signal.

>> [LAUGHTER] >> Yeah.

>> That's the.

>> That's the.

>> Text alert that.

>> Needs to give.

That's right.

Yeah.

See, one of those longs exits.

Yeah.

>> Well I mean, and you know what the best the best hedge.

And this is the real problem with corn prices.

A lot of us farmers were sitting on corn, didn't do anything because, okay, here we go.

After we were at we got the big spike for 87.

That was a, I think it was a one and a half year high.

We hit it twice, 4747 so you had two chances after starting the year.

You know, really on the on our heels and people's hindsight is always 2020.

But all I can say this is when you get to one year highs in prices move some corn.

Don't wait till it's at one year lows.

It's time and time again.

And that's the problem.

A lot of farmers were caught in the.

And it's one of those things puts never puts, never work.

And then when you need them most, you don't have them.

You know what I mean?

>> So I bought it for 22.

So and it dropped to 417.

>> That's, that's usually the way it goes.

All right.

We just wait.

>> Well, there's not a big difference in there, which is part of this question from Bryce in South Dakota.

With the current setup, what is considered a rally, Chris, should we be expecting 20 to $0.30 or more?

>> I almost you know, it's funny, I've been doing this for a long, long time.

I always look for halfway back in everything.

So I don't care if it's, you know, gold, silver, whatever.

So we just dropped $0.80 halfway back would be a good rally.

So $0.40.

So you do the math.

That would be a great, great recovery.

Okay.

>> We're going to move to Gary in Wisconsin.

I'm going to I need to get back to some of the energies with the two of you here, if you could.

Let's do Gary in Wisconsin off of X this week with the release of the new 45 tax credits chain.

Will they change farming practices for farmers near ethanol plants?

Will their land values also go up.

>> If they made it mandatory?

It's always optional.

That's the thing.

When they come out with those things.

If they ever said it's mandatory to have year round, that would be different.

And when you look at what we do, we grow 15 billion bushels of corn.

Five of it goes to ethanol, six of it goes to animal feed.

It's like, can you can you pick up an extra billion or two here that would help that?

Absolutely.

Because if you get that demand, that's like a natural put it, it'll it'll help give us a better floor for, for prices.

So but I think they need to make it if they ever said mandatory instead of suggested that would make a huge.

>> Difference in our, in our survey, the June survey, we asked the question, what was the most important.

The important factors would boost farm income and the rural Main Street economy.

And number four was E 15 E 85 year round and.

>> Right.

>> Well, and I was going to ask you, I've talked to some of your colleagues around the Midwest in the last six months about this issue.

And does 45 make a big difference, a big dent into the.

And will it help the producer?

>> I think it would.

But again, the problem, in my judgment, again, we have is we have what I call in economics and almost everything regression to the mean.

Okay.

So if it's something that's running really high, it tends to move back to the mean.

But the problem is we have intervention from the government and they abort that.

So in fact, you think you're going to move back up to corn at $5 a bushel.

Well, you have some trade interventions which destroy that.

You don't move.

You don't have regression to the mean.

So yeah, it we ethanol is very important.

And year round ethanol would be quite positive.

But I don't think it solves all the problems that we're seeing out there.

I again, I the number one issue for the for the ag sector is trade is get, give us some certainty and trade MCA is part of that too.

Yeah.

>> Okay.

We're going to close with a friend of ours, friend of the program here.

Our last question is editor in Illinois.

And we all know who editor on Twitter is.

He knows Mark Gold.

So does Chris Robinson.

What do you think of your mentor Mark Gold retiring?

Chris.

>> My mentor.

I met Mark when I was 22 years old.

I walked into the Board of Trade and everybody thought I was an FBI agent.

I had a crew cut and nobody wanted to talk.

>> To this kid.

>> And it was a very competitive place.

I couldn't find a place to stand where people didn't chase me away, scream at me, and I ended up over by Mark, because Mark was one of the guys that actually would trade with me and was if I made a good market.

He traded with me and I always thank him for that.

And then years later, you know, 15, 20 years later, when the floor was going away, I was lucky enough to still be friends with him.

And he gave me my entree into this business.

And I'll always be thankful for him.

>> And here we are, good person.

He's the reason he you.

>> Had to fill in for him one.

>> Time, and that's how he got you here.

Absolutely.

Right.

So in that sense, it all worked out.

>> And why is Ernie Goss here?

We don't know.

>> We still don't know.

But you know what?

>> We'll invite.

You back again.

>> Around Thanksgiving.

How about that?

>> I always look forward to it.

>> I do too, Ernie Goss, great to see you again.

Thank you so very much, sir.

Chris Robinson, thanks.

Thank you very much.

And thank you, everybody for watching.

Next week on the TV show, we're going to talk about the Squid Squabble off the Oregon coast And Ted Seifried will come here and sit in the chair.

Thank you so much for joining us.

Have yourselves a great week.