GEOFF BENNETT: Hungarians will go to the polls this Sunday in one of the most closely watched elections this year.

Longtime Prime Minister Viktor Orban, an ally of both President Trump and Russia's Vladimir Putin, is facing the most serious challenge to his 16 years in office.

As Lisa Desjardins tells us, the White House also has a lot riding on Hungary's vote.

LISA DESJARDINS: In Hungary this week, a nation on a precipice between a leader linked to the East... VIKTOR ORBAN, Prime Minister of Hungary (through translator): Democracy is dying in Europe because Brussels is directly interfering in national elections.

They openly demand that Hungary should have a pro-Brussels and a pro-Ukrainian government.

Well, it won't happen, my friends.

LISA DESJARDINS: ... and a challenger promising a turn to the West.

PETER MAGYAR, Hungarian Opposition Candidate (through translator): The Hungarians still see that Hungary's peace and development are guaranteed by the membership of the European Union and NATO.

LISA DESJARDINS: Incumbent Prime Minister Viktor Orban has led Hungary for 16 years, the longest of any serving European Union leader, long touting nationalist conservative policies, promoting, in his own words, an illiberal state based on national values, from fiscal conservatism pursuing state control in the economy, to crackdowns on immigration, and passing anti-LGBTQ laws, banning Pride events and same-sex marriage,.

Orban has been accused by the European Union and human rights organizations of dismantling democratic institutions, from cracking down on free press and restricting content to co-opting ownership of independent media.

Pro-Orban oligarchs now own 500 media outlets.

Approximately 80 percent of the nation's media is controlled by Orban's Fidesz Party.

WOMAN: Hungary's new Constitution has angered opposition.

LISA DESJARDINS: The hard right party also successfully passed a new Constitution in 2011 that hands control over the judiciary to a political appointee in the parliamentary majority, Orban's Fidesz Party.

In the first year alone, 274 judges and prosecutors were forced into early retirement, according to a report by the European Commission.

And despite the commission decrying the legislation as illegal under E.U.

law and large-scale domestic protests, Hungary has since passed more laws limiting the judiciary's power.

Orban has also maintained an anti-Ukraine stance, having vetoed a $103 billion E.U.

loan package after a key pipeline transporting oil from Russia to Hungary and Slovakia was bombed in Ukraine in January.

Ukraine has blamed Russia for the attack.

But Orban maintains it was Ukraine and Volodymyr Zelenskyy's government.

VIKTOR ORBAN (through translator): As long as Zelenskyy does not give us what is ours and let through our oil, which we have already paid for, until then, we and I will not support any decision in Brussels that serves Ukraine's interests.

LISA DESJARDINS: Orban has also been criticized for his close ties to Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Bloomberg reported this week that Orban told Putin in an October phone call: "I can help in any way.

There's a story in our Hungarian picture books where a mouse helps a lion.

I am ready to help immediately."

But Orban is also a close ally of President Trump.

Vice President J.D.

Vance visited Budapest this week in a controversial endorsement before the upcoming election.

J.D.

VANCE, Vice President of the United States: Together, the president of the United States and the prime minister of Hungary have been able to do amazing things.

And we're here because we want to celebrate those amazing things.

We want to build upon those amazing things.

And, of course, I want to help as much as I possibly can the prime minister.

Mr.

President, you are on with about 5,000 Hungarian patriots, and I think they love you even more than they love Viktor Orban.

(CHEERING) LISA DESJARDINS: During the event, Vance called Trump.

DONALD TRUMP, President of the United States: I love that Viktor.

I will tell you, he's a fantastic man.

We have had a tremendous relationship.

And he does a job.

LISA DESJARDINS: But Orban is facing faltering support and independent opinion polls predict he will lose Sunday to opposition leader Peter Magyar.

Once a member of Orban's party, he formed the Tisza Party in 2024 amidst a Fidesz Party corruption scandal.

Magyar has accused Orban of Democratic backsliding and collusion with the Russian government, while Orban today accused Magyar's Tisza Party of the same.

VIKTOR ORBAN (through translator): Our opponents will stop at nothing to seize power.

They are colluding with foreign secret services, threatening our followers with violence, and calling out election fraud with fabricated accusations.

LISA DESJARDINS: Hungary faces an election that could determine its future as a European nation united with the West or as one sliding further toward electoral autocracy.

For more on the upcoming election in Hungary, we turn to R. Daniel Kelemen, associate dean for faculty at Georgetown University's McCourt School of Public Policy.

He's written extensively about Hungary.

Now, Hungary is a landlocked country in Central Europe.

You can see on the map it borders Ukraine, as well as six other nations there, Russia just beyond Ukraine; 10 million people live there.

Why should people pay attention to this particular election?

R. DANIEL KELEMEN, Georgetown University: Well, I think this election is very important, despite Hungary being a small country, because of the role Orban has played within the E.U.

and internationally as a sort of role model for aspiring autocrats, that is, leaders who are elected initially in a fair democratic election, but then basically use their power to entrench their rule, control the media, the judiciary, as you were saying in your segment, and pursue that far right ideological agenda as well.

So he's been the sort of role model for that.

And if he loses, that is really significant, showing that maybe leaders like that run out of road eventually with that model.

LISA DESJARDINS: Orban's challenger is a former protege of his.

How has he been able to gain momentum and how deep does his break with Orban go?

R. DANIEL KELEMEN: Well, the break is fundamental.

He sort of came out with a Facebook post a while back where he decried corruption, high-level corruption, with Orban and associates of his and sort of tried to reveal what was going on with the party leadership.

And that got a lot of attention and he became a sort of celebrity instantly because of that.

And so it's a fundamental break.

And I think it's important that he came from the ruling party, because basically the electorate is pretty conservative, and so he can campaign as a conservative, but one who is going to stand up for fighting corruption and repairing relations with the E.U.

and distancing the country from this pro-Russia policy.

LISA DESJARDINS: Now, the Parliament and the system has been shaped by Orban significantly over his time in office.

In terms of the results, does the margin matter?

And explain why it might.

R. DANIEL KELEMEN: The margin is crucial, because I think the thing we have to understand is, this is a kind of soft what they call electoral autocracy.

So the votes will be counted tomorrow.

It won't be just rampant ballot stuffing or something that would happen in Russia.

But the playing field is tilted because he's rewritten the electoral rules and manipulates the system in a lot of ways we could go into detail on.

But the point is, the opposition needs to win by at least 5 percent to get a majority in this system.

But it's looking like he's polling so far ahead that Orban won't be able to manipulate things to come out on top.

LISA DESJARDINS: Now, President Trump had more to say about this today.

He posted this message.

It was unusual.

He wrote: "My administration stands ready to use the full economic might of the United States to strengthen Hungary's economy."

Why is the White House working so hard for Orban?

Clearly, the economy is an issue there too.

But is this election also a test of Trump's resonance right now?

R. DANIEL KELEMEN: Well, Trump's treating it that way by sending Vance there to campaign, which all indications are that didn't really help Orban.

But I think it's important for Trump for a couple reasons.

First of all, you may recall that CPAC has held conferences in Hungary.

They're building these ties.

And, really, it's because I think Trump and some of the MAGA movement see Orban as a role model on a miniature scale of what they would like to do to build an enduring hold on power here.

And so, if he's defeated, that's bad for them and for that model.

And then, also, Orban is Trump's closest ally within the E.U.

with a seat in the European Council when key issues are voted on, et cetera.

So he loses a crucial ally if Orban's out.

LISA DESJARDINS: We talked about what it means for Trump.

What about other world powers, Russia, China?

R. DANIEL KELEMEN: Well, besides his close ties with Trump, let's be clear.

Orban is a Trojan horse for Putin within the E.U.

There were revelations just a few weeks ago where recordings were released of the Hungarian foreign minister calling the Russian foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov, after E.U.

meetings, offering to share with him confidential documents about the negotiations with Ukraine and also offering to coordinate on undermining sanctions on Russia the E.U.

is trying to do.

So the Orban government basically works for Putin within the E.U., and so it would be a big loss for Moscow.

LISA DESJARDINS: In the last 30 seconds or so that we have, the last time that Orban lost an election, George W. Bush was president in this country.

It was a long time ago.

Do we know if Orban would go from power peacefully?

R. DANIEL KELEMEN: Well, I don't think he will go easily.

I wouldn't say he will resort to violence, but I do think that he will not simply say, I lost fair and square, goodbye.

I think he will challenge the results.

He's already claimed that the Ukrainians and Zelenskyy are funding this opposition campaign.

So I think he will go down fighting.

LISA DESJARDINS: R. Daniel Kelemen, thank you so much.

R. DANIEL KELEMEN: Thank you.