BY MEETING THE NEW HEAD OF THE GREAT MINNESOTA GET-TOGETHER.

>> ERIC: WE START TONIGHT WITH POLITICAL NEWS OUT OF WASHINGTON, D.C. DEBT CEILING NEGOTIATIONS BETWEEN PRESIDENT BIDEN AND HOUSE SPEAKER KEVIN MCCARTHY CONTINUE WITH REPORTS THAT A DEAL IS CLOSE.

WITH SOME KEY REPUBLICANS STILL CRITICAL OF IT.

THIS AFTERNOON, YELLIN SAYS THE U.S. WILL DEFAULT ON ITS PAYMENTS BY JUNE 5TH.

CAN BIDEN AND MCCARTHY CUT A DEAL THEY CAN SELL TO THE MODERATES IN BOTH OF THEIR PARTIES?

LET'S ASK TWO OF OUR WILY POLITICAL SCIENTISTS.

STEVEN SCHIER IS A PROFESSOR EMERITUS AT CARLETON COLLEGE.

KATHRYN PEARSON INSTRUCTS POLITICAL SCIENCE STUDENTS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA.

DIDN'T THE DEMOCRATS HAVE A CHANCE TO DO THIS, LIKE, LAST YEAR?

>> YES, THEY DID, AND I'M SURE MANY ARE WISHING THAT THEY HAD DONE SO IN THE LAME DUCK SESSION SORT OF KNOWING WHAT WAS TO COME BECAUSE OBVIOUSLY THIS WAS GOING TO BE A POLITICAL BATTLE.

IT HARKENS BACK TO 2011.

WHICH WASN'T A DEFAULT.

WE'VE NEVER DEFAULTED.

BUT WE'VE COME CLOSE, BUT THE U.S.'S CREDIT RATING WAS DOWN GRADES.

IN THE CONTEXT OF DIVIDED GOVERNMENT, HOUSE REPUBLICANS ARE TRYING TO EXTRACT SOME SERIOUS SPENDING CUTS TO RAISE THE DEBT CEILING.

INSTITUTED IN 1917, HAS EEN RAISED OVER 100 DIMES USUALLY WITHOUT CONFLICT DURING BOTH TIMES OF REPUBLICAN AND DEMOCRATIC ADMINISTRATIONS, BUT DIVIDED GOVERNMENT -- >> Cathy: SO THIS IS NOT UNCHARTED TERRITORY.

>> H, NO, BEEN THERE, DONE THAT.

>> Eric: THERE'S GOING TO BE A DEAL, RIGHT?

>> THERE WILL BE A DEAL, BUT KATHRYN AND I BOTH THINK IT COULD BE QUITE MESSY GETTING FROM HERE TO THERE.

AND WILL WE GET HERE BY JUNE 5TH.

IT'S NOT AT ALL CLEAR.

>> Cathy: WILL HAVE TO COME TOGETHER TO TRY TO MAKE SURE THAT THIS IS GOING TO GET DONE, IGHT?

>> THEY WILL, BUT IT'S TOUGH FOR BOTH PARTIES.

AND REMEMBER, SPEAKER MCCARTHY, IT TOOK 15 VOTES TO GET HIM ELECTED, AND SO CLEARLY HE WILL USE SOME OF HIS MEMBERS, MANY OF HIS FREEDOM CAUCUS MEMBERS, BUT IF HE LOSES MORE THAN SAY, A DOZEN MEMBERS, THAT WILL THREATEN HIS LEADERSHIP.

WHEREAS OF COURSE DEMOCRATS ARE SAYING, THE SPENDING CUTS AND SOME OF THE POPULATION PROVISIONS ARE TOO DRACONIAN.

>> AND THIS IS ACTUALLY I THINK ONE OF THE MOST INFORMATIVE VOTES YOU'LL GET IN CONGRESS THIS SESSION.

BECAUSE YOU'RE GOING TO GET A SENSE OF HOW BIG THE DEMOCRATIC LEFT IS IN THEIR DISSENTS AND HOW BIG THE REPUBLICAN RIGHT IS AND WHETHER THE CENTER CAN HOLD.

WE REALLY HAVEN'T HAD A TEST OF THAT WRET YET AND WE'RE GOING TO GET THE NUMBERS WHEN THIS VOTE IS CAST.

>> Eric: DOES IT THE HASTA RULE NOT APPLY NOW, WHERE YOU HAVE ALL OF YOUR MEMBERS VOTING TO PASS SPLNG -- >> RIGHT, SO THE ASESSER RULE WAS NEVER ACTUALLY A FORMAL RULE.

IT WAS JUST SORT OF AN INFORMAL NORM THAT FOR HOUSE REPUBLICANS, FOR ANYTHING TO PASS, THEY NEEDED A MAJORITY OF THE MAJORITY CAUCUS AND THE FACT THAT SPEAK BOEHNER IN FACT DURING SOME DEBT LIMIT NEGOTIATIONS VIOLATED THAT REALLY WAS PART OF HIS DOWNFALL.

SO SPEAKER MCCARTHY WANTS TO VIED THAT FATE.

>> HE WANTS TO -- HE REALLY NEED TO BECAUSE THE FREEDOM CAUCUS, WHICH TOOK 15 BALLOTS TO FINALLY APPROVE HIM.

THIS COULD EITHER MAKE OR BREAK HIS PEAKERSHIP IN IMPORTANT WAYS.

IF THERE'S NOUGH DISSENTSD WITHIN HIS CAUCUS, HE'S IN IG TROUBLE.

>> Cathy: COULD YOU TEST THE CONSTITUTION ON THIS?

DOESN'T THE PRESIDENT HAVE THE RIGHT TO PAY THE BILLS, IN A SENSE?

>> WELL, THE 14TH AMENDMENT CERTAINLY HAS BEEN MENTIONED BUT I HINK IT'S UNLIKELY IF IT WOULD GO TO THE SUPREME COURT THAT THE SUPREME COURT WOULD RULE IN PRESIDENT BIDEN'S FAVOR AND THE CLOCK IS STILL ICKING HERE.

AND SO I THINK, YOU KNOW, IT -- IN 1917, YOU KNOW, CONGRESS -- THIS IS CONGRESS'S JOB.

TO RAISE THE DEBT CEILING.

AND AGAIN, IT'S DONE SO OVER 100 TIMES BUT THIS -- THE FACTIONS WITHIN EACH PARTY ARE WHAT'S MAKING IT SO COMPLICATED.

>> Eric: IMPACT ON THE 2024 ELECTION CYCLE SOME >> WELL, IT REALLY DEPENDS ON THE DEAL AND WHO VOTES FOR IT AND WHAT'S IN IT?

POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT.

IT'LL BE VERY INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT THE REPUBLICAN CANDIDATES FOR PRESIDENT SAY ABOUT THIS DEAL AND IT MAY SEPARATE THEM IN IMPORTANT WAYS.

>> Eric: MCCARTHY DID GET A BILL THROUGH THE HOUSE.

I SUPPOSE HE DESERVES A LITTLE CREDIT FOR THAT.

>> HE DOES, AND THAT CERTAINLY SORT OF BOLSTERED HIM WITHIN HIS OWN CAUCUS, BUT OF COURSE IT'S A BRL THAT BY DINE THAT PRESIDENT BIDEN AND DEMOCRATS IN THE SENATE WOULD NEVER SUPPORT.

ONE OF THE THINGS THAT WE HEARD IS THAT WHERE THEY ARE IN NEGOTIATIONS COULD BE AN INCREASE OF THE $31.4 TRILLION DEBT CEILING FOR TWO YEARS SO BEYOND THE 2024 ELECTIONS.

WHICH WOULD BE HUGE IN TERMS OF THE ELECTION DEBATE.

>> Cathy: DOES THERE SEEM TO BE A LACK OF UNDERSTANDING ABOUT THE RAMIFICATIONS OF THE SITUATION AMONG SOME MEMBERS OF CONGRESS?

[ Laughter ] >> WELL, IT'S EVER HAPPENED BEFORE.

AND ECONOMISTS HAVE PRETTY DIRE WARNINGS, BOTH ABOUT RECESSIONS IN THE U.S. AND THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL MARKETS.

>> WE COULD FIND OUT, BUT I DON'T KNOW THAT WE WANT TO.

[ Laughter ] >> Eric: OW MUCH WOULD BIDEN'S POPULARITY AND MCCARTHY'S CREDIBILITY AND POPULARITY BE ENHANCED IF THEY CAME OUT ON THE DRIVEWAY OF THE WHITE HOUSE AND SAID WE GOT A DEAL?

>> I THINK BIDEN HAS SOME RISK HERE, PARTICULARLY ON HIS LEFT.

THERE IS CONCERN ABOUT HIS AGE AND HIS VIABILITY AS A CANDIDATE.

YOU KNOW, A YEAR FROM NOVEMBER.

AND SO HE DOESN'T WANT TO, I THINK, EMPOWER THE LEFT WING OF HIS PARTY BY OFFENDING THEM.

SO THERE'S THAT RISK.

MCCARTHY HAS A FRACTIOUS CAUCUS AND THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH TROUBLE THEY'LL GIVE HIM.

>> I DON'T THINK THE AMERICAN PUBLIC IS PAYING VERY CLOSE TO THE DETAILS.

SO I HINK IF THEY EMERGED WITH AN AGREEMENT, THEIR POPULARITY WOULD GO UP, ALL EXCEPT FOR THE EXTREME BASE OF THEIR PARTY AND INDEPENDENTS WOULD SEE CONGRESS AND THE WHITE HOUSE AS BEING MORE PRODUCTIVE.

SOME OF THE LOWEST APPROVAL EVER IS WITH GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWNS.

>> THEY'RE TALKING ABOUT A DEAL THAT WOULD INVOLVE SOME SPENDING CUTS AND RECENT POLLS, I SAW TWO TODAY, HAVE MAJORITY SUPPORT OF THAT OPTION.

SO THAT MIGHT ACTUALLY HELP BOTH THE SPEAKER AND THE PRESIDENT.

>> Cathy: SAY, BEFORE YOU GO, WE GO TWO MINUTES.

CAN I JUST BRING HIS P AND ASK.

RON DESANTIS JUMPED INTO THE RACE.

REPUBLICAN DOUG BIGGER YUM TOO.

>> I THINK DONALD TRUMP IS HAPPY AS A CLAM.

THE MORE, THE MERRIER, AS FAR AS HE'S CONCERNED, BECAUSE THAT MEANS IT'S NOT CLEAR THERE'S NOT ONE DEFINABLE THREATENING RIVAL THAT'S AGAINST TRUMP.

>> I WOULD AGREE, BUT I WOULD ALSO KNOW THE 2024 NOMINATING CONTEST, IT'S STILL A WAYS AWAY.

INCLUDING THE FORMER PRESIDENT.

SO WE'LL STAY TUNED I THINK.

>> Eric: GIVE US A SUMMER TIME LOOK A